The simulation model of land cover change in the Požega-Slavonia County

Jogun, Tomislav (2016) The simulation model of land cover change in the Požega-Slavonia County. Diploma thesis, Faculty of Science > Department of Geography.

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Abstract

The paper focuses on the stochastic simulation models for land cover change. Spatio-temporal framework of the research is the Požega-Slavonia County from 1985 to 2027. The land cover and its changes from 1985 to 2013 were determined by the hybrid supervised classification of Landsat imagery, with high accuracy achieved. The main trend in this period was the extensification of the land cover. Thematic maps of the land cover and spatial variables were input data for the simulation model which was implemented in the MOLUSCE plugin for QGIS. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and logistic regression (LR) were used for the calibration of simulation models. The prediction was performed using cellular automata (CA). Validation of the test models showed that they have more successfully predicted quantity of the land cover change than its location. Also, ANNs were more successful than LR, and the fusion of individual results improved agreement between the simulation and reference data. The final models predict a continuation of the land cover extensification from 2013 to 2027. The past and future land cover changes reflect profound development problems of the Požega-Slavonia County.

Item Type: Thesis (Diploma thesis)
Keywords: cellular automata, logistic regression, MOLUSCE, Požega-Slavonia County, land cover change, simulation model, artificial neural networks
Supervisor: Lukić, Aleksandar
Date: 2016
Number of Pages: 74
Subjects: NATURAL SCIENCES > Geography
Divisions: Faculty of Science > Department of Geography
Depositing User: dipl. bib. Ljljana Bajs
Date Deposited: 27 Jun 2016 08:33
Last Modified: 27 Jun 2016 08:33
URI: http://digre.pmf.unizg.hr/id/eprint/4908

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